How to compare the efficacy of conjugate vaccines to prevent acute otitis media?

Although the currently available 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7-CRM(197)) has been primarily designed for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease, it has also demonstrated the potential to prevent acute otitis media (AOM) and its associated complications. A candidate 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV11-HiD), which utilizes Haemophilus influenzae (Hi)-derived protein D as a carrier has demonstrated the ability to prevent AOM caused by not only vaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp), but also those caused by Hi. The methodological, clinical, and epidemiological factors influencing results of vaccine trials for AOM prevention were reviewed and a model-based approach was developed, in order to assess the relative efficacy of different vaccine formulations. Six randomized trials having AOM as a measured outcome were identified. Vaccine efficacy (VE) ranged from -1% to 34% for all-cause AOM and between 56% and 64% for AOM caused by vaccine-type Sp. Using otopathogen-specific VE rates from the FinOM and POET trials and otopathogen distributions observed in three relatively unbiased studies, VE against all-cause AOM episodes under different scenarios was modeled. The most important factor explaining variation in VE estimates was bacterial replacement, which was present in the PCV7-CRM(197) FinOM study but not in the PCV11-HiD POET study. Another contributing factor was increased protection conferred against Hi AOM by protein D. Geographical variation in the distribution of otopathogens was a third factor explaining differences between trials. More studies on the current aetiology of AOM need to be performed to accurately predict the marginal benefit of a switch from PCV7-CRM(197) to the newly licensed PCV10-HiD-DiT or to the future PCV13-CRM(197).