Modeling the pediatric paradox: birth weight by gestational age.

The "pediatric paradox" of African versus European American infant mortality is often observed with respect to birth weight, but rarely to gestational age, even though the two measures are biologically related. This paper models the pediatric paradox by birth weight and gestational age simultaneously, using Covariate Density Defined mixture of logistic regressions (CDDmlr) fitted to 1985-1988 New York State births. The model controls for unobserved heterogeneity and isolates the pediatric paradox in the "compromised" subpopulation. The paradox is not limited to low birth weights and/or short gestational ages, but surrounds the normal birth range. Nevertheless, the pediatric paradox is only observed in the marginal distribution of birth weight and not the marginal distribution of gestational age. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that higher fetal losses in the "compromised" subpopulation may be responsible for the pediatric paradox and that African versus European American infant mortality differentials are underestimated.