A model assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran sources and fate in the Baltic Sea.

The contamination of the Baltic Sea with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) has resulted in restrictions on the marketing and consumption of Baltic Sea fish, making this a priority environmental issue in the European Union. To date there is no consensus on the relative importance of different sources of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea, and hence no consensus on how to address this issue. In this work we synthesized the available information to create a PCDD/F budget for the Baltic Sea, focusing on the two largest basins, the Bothnian Sea and the Baltic Proper. The non-steady state multimedia fate and transport model POPCYCLING-Baltic was employed, using recent data for PCDD/F concentrations in air and sediment as boundary conditions. The PCDD/F concentrations in water predicted by the model were in good agreement with recent measurements. The budget demonstrated that atmospheric deposition was the dominant source of PCDD/Fs to the basins as a whole. This conclusion was supported by a statistical comparison of the PCDD/F congener patterns in surface sediments from accumulation bottoms with the patterns in ambient air, bulk atmospheric deposition, and a range of potential industrial sources. Prospective model simulations indicated that the PCDD/F concentrations in the water column will continue to decrease in the coming years due to the slow response of the Baltic Sea system to falling PCDD/F inputs in the last decades, but that the decrease would be more pronounced if ambient air concentrations were to drop further in the future, for instance as a result of reduced emissions. The study illustrates the usefulness of using monitoring data and multimedia models in an integrated fashion to address complex organic contaminant issues.