Prediction of duration and success rate of unrelated hematopoietic stem cell donor searches based on the patient's HLA-DRB1 allele and DRB1-DQB1 haplotype frequencies.

Rapid identification of a matched unrelated donor is essential for patients in need of hematopoietic SCT. We carried out a retrospective evaluation of 549 unrelated donor searches (UDSs), which were completed in 2005 for 23 German transplant centers. On the basis of the patient's HLA-DRB1 allele and DRB1-DQB1 haplotype frequencies, UDSs were divided into four groups with different search success probability predictions. For 90.5% of the patients, an acceptable HLA-matched, and for 61.6% an HLA-A-B-Cw-DRB1-DQB1-identical (10/10 matched) unrelated donor was found. The median search duration was 22 days. In the groups with high (n = 318), medium (n = 157), low (n = 56) and very low (n = 18) UDS success probability, an acceptable donor was found for 99.1, 86.6, 75.0 and 22.2% of the patients, and a 10/10-matched donor was found for 78.3, 49.7, 17.9 and 4.5% of the patients, respectively. The median search duration was 20, 27, 45 and 477 days in the groups with high, medium, low and very low probability, respectively. The search success rate and duration can be predicted on the basis of the patient's HLA-DRB1 allele and HLA-DRB1-DQB1 haplotype frequencies. An unrelated donor can be found for most of the patients, even if the indication for transplantation is urgent.