Assessment and simulation of the implementation of brucellosis control programme in an endemic area of the Middle East.

Brucellosis is an important zoonosis in Middle Eastern countries. In this study we assessed the extent of the application of planned official brucellosis control programmes in Kafr El Sheikh governorate, Egypt and we used a stochastic simulation model to assess the probable impact of changes to the official control strategy on the dynamics of small-ruminant brucellosis. Our results show that <7% of female livestock were tested in any given year in the study area and that quarantine was not consistently applied to infected herds. Simulation results revealed the inability of the applied control measures to reduce the prevalence of small-ruminant brucellosis. Given our assumptions, the intensity with which infected animals are removed under the actual levels of implementation of test-and-slaughter programmes would permit brucellosis to remain endemic at a level >8% of the sheep and goat population.