OBJECTIVES: Few studies have prospectively evaluated predictors of mortality in the very elderly. This study has aimed to determine which factors could predict death in nonagenarians after two years of follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHOD: 176 nonagenarians were evaluated prospectively, 137 (74%) of whom lived in their own home and 49 (26%) of whom were institutionalized. Sociodemographic data were collected. Functional status was determined by the Lawton-Brody and the Barthel index, and cognition by the Spanish version of the Mental State Examination (MEC). The Charlson index was used to measure overall co-morbidity. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 135 women (76.3%) and 41 men. Mean age was 93 +/- 3.2 years. Mean Barthel index was 60.8 +/- 30, Lawton index 2.1 +/- 2.2 and MEC 21 +/- 11. The mean of Charlson index was 1.4 +/- 1.7. Six-four patients had died after two years of follow-up (36.3%). Charlson index (oR 1.370, 95% Ci 1.113-1.686, p < 0.003), Lawton index (OR 0.750, 95% CI 0.586-0.960, p < 0.02) and MEC (OR 0.964, 95% CI 0.932-0.997, p < 0.003) were variables independently associated with death after 24 months of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Higher comorbidity, incapacity to perform instrumental ADL at baseline and poor cognitive status are predictors of mortality after 2 years of follow-up in nonagenarians.
OBJECTIVES: Few studies have prospectively evaluated predictors of mortality in the very elderly. This study has aimed to determine which factors could predict death in nonagenarians after two years of follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHOD: 176 nonagenarians were evaluated prospectively, 137 (74%) of whom lived in their own home and 49 (26%) of whom were institutionalized. Sociodemographic data were collected. Functional status was determined by the Lawton-Brody and the Barthel index, and cognition by the Spanish version of the Mental State Examination (MEC). The Charlson index was used to measure overall co-morbidity. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 135 women (76.3%) and 41 men. Mean age was 93 +/- 3.2 years. Mean Barthel index was 60.8 +/- 30, Lawton index 2.1 +/- 2.2 and MEC 21 +/- 11. The mean of Charlson index was 1.4 +/- 1.7. Six-four patients had died after two years of follow-up (36.3%). Charlson index (oR 1.370, 95% Ci 1.113-1.686, p < 0.003), Lawton index (OR 0.750, 95% CI 0.586-0.960, p < 0.02) and MEC (OR 0.964, 95% CI 0.932-0.997, p < 0.003) were variables independently associated with death after 24 months of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Higher comorbidity, incapacity to perform instrumental ADL at baseline and poor cognitive status are predictors of mortality after 2 years of follow-up in nonagenarians.