Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7.

Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region's Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT.