| Literature DB >> 19213766 |
T Jefferson1, C Di Pietrantonj, M G Debalini, A Rivetti, V Demicheli.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To explore the relation between study concordance, take home message, funding, and dissemination of comparative studies assessing the effects of influenza vaccines.Entities:
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2009 PMID: 19213766 PMCID: PMC2643439 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.b354
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMJ ISSN: 0959-8138

Flow of primary studies in review (RCT=randomised controlled trial; CCT=clinical controlled trial, semi-randomised trial)
Summary of main findings of assessment of possible association between methodological quality, concordance between data presented and conclusions reported, take home message of article conclusions, and funding source in comparative studies of influenza vaccines
| Is there a relation between: | Odds ratio (95% CI) | Interpretation | Sensitivity analysis carried out? If yes what were the results? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Methodological quality and concordance between data presented and conclusions reported? | Aggregate moderate and high risk of bias: 16.35 (4.24 to 63.04) | Positive association between low risk of bias and concordance | No |
| Methodological quality and funding source? | Aggregate moderate and high risk of bias, excluding studies with missing funding source: 0.74 (0.19 to 2.84) | No evidence of negative association between governmental funding source and low risk of bias | Yes. Sensitivity analysis carried out on 240 possible scenarios: 1.64% of scenarios with OR <1 significant, 65.4% with OR <1 non-significant; 0.83% with OR=1; and 32.1% with OR >1 non-significant at 5% level |
| Methodological quality and take home message? | Aggregate moderate and high risk of bias: 0.19 (0.05 to 0.64) | Negative association between low risk of bias and favourable conclusion | No |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and take home message? | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.09) | Negative association between presence of concordance and favourable conclusion | No |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and funding source? | Excluding studies with missing funding source: 1.47 (0.72 to 3.07) | No evidence of positive association between concordance and government funding source at 5% significance level | Yes. Sensitivity analysis carried out on 413 possible scenarios; 16.5% of scenarios with OR <1 and non-significant, 57.9% with OR >1 non-significant, and 25.7% with OR >1 significant at 5% level |
| Funding source and take home message? | Excluding studies with missing funding source: 0.45 (0.26 to 0.90) | Evidence of negative association between favourable conclusion and government funding | Yes. Sensitivity analysis carried out on 989 possible scenarios; 47.0% of scenarios with OR <1 significant, 38.5% with OR <1 non-significant, 14.4% with OR >1 non-significant, and only 0.1% (one scenario) with OR >1 significant at 5% level |
Examples of discrepancy between results and conclusions
| Study | Summary of results | Author’s conclusions and reviewer comments |
|---|---|---|
| Wongsurakiat 200431 (randomised placebo controlled trial in 125 adults and older people with COPD) | Significant reduction shown for total acute respiratory infections (ARI) with laboratory confirmation of influenza (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.7; P=0.005) and influenza like illness (ILI) (0.34, 0.1 to 0.99, P=0.03). For acute exacerbations, difference not significant (0.92, 0.67 to 1.3, P=0.6). In this category 13/21 confirmed cases of influenza isolated, so, as for total ARI episodes (124 in vaccinated and 145 in placebo group), there was no difference between two intervention groups. This applies also to “probability of not being admitted to hospital related to ARI (P=0.2 by log rank test) and probability of not receiving mechanical ventilation related to ARI (P=0.4 by log rank test)” | Study was conducted over one year. Conclusions support recommendation of annual vaccination (one dose is sufficient in adults, as strong response has been observed). Authors note that vaccine effectiveness has been shown, even if it was possibly administered too late (in region where study was carried out peak incidence of influenza occurs usually in May). Comment: though authors state that effectiveness is shown for influenza related ARI only, and not influenza, they recommend vaccination for patients with COPD. This means recommending vaccine though it is not effective against influenza and acute exacerbations. In addition, lack of comment on community viral circulation and vaccine content and matching make verification of effectiveness against ARI impossible |
| Wilde 199932 (randomised trials on 264 healthy healthcare workers, three consecutive seasons) | Influenza infection (fourfold increase in haemagglutination inhibiting antibody against virus A or B between serum sample after immunisation and after epidemic). Efficacy against A (H3N2) virus estimated as 88% (47% to 97%, P=0.001); against B virus as 89% (14% to 99%, P=0.02). Authors’ conclusions about efficacy derived from cumulative data only. They apply effect measure and significance test (χ2) to cumulative data only. When applied to single comparisons, significance reached only for influenza A in 1992-3 (P=0.026). Days with respiratory illness (52 | “In conclusion, influenza vaccine is effective in preventing serologically proven influenza infection in young, healthy hospital-based healthcare professionals and may reduce cumulative days of illness and absence. These data suggest that a policy of annual immunization with influenza vaccine in healthcare professionals will reduce influenza infections and can reduce associated illness.” Comment: influenza vaccination is recommended though outcomes are exclusively serological (surrogates) calculated in aggregate over three years (180 in intervention arms and 179 in three different control arms). Clinical outcomes are not significantly affected by vaccination |
| Carman 200033 (block randomised trial, 20 long term care hospitals) | All cause mortality less common in long term care where vaccination was offered (vaccination rate 13.6%; 102/749) than in those where it was not (vaccination rate 22.4%; 154/688). Crude OR 0.58, 0.40 to 0.84, P=0.014). Significance disappears after adjustment for degree of disability by Barthel scale, age, sex, vaccination of patients (0.61, 0.36 to 1.04, P=0.092). Virological surveillance (routine, from some symptomatic subjects, from some samples taken at death) did not show different frequency of viruses A or B isolates between two groups (culture and PCR) | “Vaccination of health-care workers was associated with a substantial decrease in mortality [for all causes] among patients. However, virological surveillance showed no associated decrease in non-fatal influenza infection in patients.” Comment: implausible conclusion with use of all cause mortality an outcome lacking specificity. Long list of confounders: biased reporting of autopsy sampling, trenchant conclusion despite apparent lack of effect on viral circulation, brief description of vaccine content or matching (in discussion), attrition in serology follow-up, possible selection bias of healthcare workers and patients, higher Barthel score in vaccinated arm. Once data were adjusted for Barthel score, age, and sex no effect was observed |
RCT=randomised controlled trial, COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, RR=relative risk, OR=odds ratio, PCR=polymerase chain reaction.
Analysis of relation between journal impact factor, citation index factor, study sample size, publication delay, methodological quality, take home message content, concordance, and source of funding
| Is there a relation between: | Statistical tests* | Interpretation | Sensitivity analysis carried out? | If yes, what were results? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methodological quality and JIF (with aggregate moderate and high risk of bias studies)? | z=1.3, P=0.184 | No evidence of difference in mean JIF between studies with low risk of bias and studies with (high or moderate) risk of bias | No | — |
| Methodological quality and CIF (with aggregate moderate and high risk of bias studies)? | z=−0.19, P=0.851 | No evidence of difference in mean CIF between studies with low risk of bias and studies with (high or moderate) risk of bias | No | — |
| Methodological quality and CSS (with aggregate moderate and high risk of bias studies)? | z=−0.96, P=0.338 | No evidence of difference in mean CSS between studies with low risk of bias and studies with (high or moderate) risk of bias | Yes (only with RCT) | No change in interpretation |
| Methodological quality and PD (with aggregate moderate and high risk of bias studies)? | z=−0.38, P=0.707 | No evidence of difference in mean PD between studies with low risk of bias and studies with (high or moderate) risk of bias | No | — |
| Take home message and JIF? | z=−1.51, P=0.131 | No evidence of difference in mean JIF between studies with favourable take home message and studies with mixed/unfavourable take home message | No | — |
| Take home message and CIF? | z=−1.84, P=0.065 | No evidence of difference in mean CIF between studies with favourable take home message and studies with mixed/unfavourable take home message | No | — |
| Take home message and CSS? | z=−0.41, P=0.682 | No evidence of difference in mean CSS between studies with favourable take home message and studies with mixed/unfavourable take home message | Yes (only with RCT) | No change in interpretation |
| Take home message and PD? | z=−0.89 P=0.375 | No evidence of difference in mean PD between studies with favourable take home message and studies with mixed/unfavourable take home message | No | — |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and JIF? | z=1.1, P=0.273 | No evidence of difference in mean JIF between studies with concordance (yes) and studies with concordance (no/part/unclear) | No | — |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and CIF? | z=0.35 P=0.729 | No evidence of difference in mean CIF between studies with concordance (yes) and studies with concordance (no/part/unclear) | No | — |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and CSS? | z=0.84, P=0.404 | No evidence of difference in mean CSS between studies with concordance (yes) and studies with concordance (no/part/unclear) | Yes (only with RCT) | No change in interpretation |
| Concordance between data presented and conclusions reported and PD? | z=−0.58, P=0.563 | No evidence of difference in mean PD between studies with concordance (yes) and studies with concordance (no/part/unclear) | — | — |
| Funding source and JIF? | χ2=27.4, df=2, P<0.001 | Evidence of difference in mean JIF between studies with industry funding source and other funding source. Mean JIF significantly greater in industry funded studies than studies with other funding source | Excluding studies with undeclared funding | No change in interpretation |
| Funding source and CIF? | χ2=13.5, df=2, P<0.001 | Evidence of difference in mean CIF between studies with industry funding source and other funding source. Mean CIF significantly greater in industry funded studies than studies with other funding source | Excluding studies with undeclared funding | Change in interpretation: “no evidence” |
| Funding source and CSS? | χ2=0.06, df=2, P=0.997 | No evidence of difference in mean CSS between industry funded studies and government funded studies | Excluding studies with undeclared funding and only with RCT | No change in interpretation |
| Funding source and PD? | χ2=0.97, df=2, P=0.616 | No evidence of difference in mean PD between industry funded studies and government funded studies | Excluding studies with undeclared funding | No change in interpretation |
JIF=journal impact factor; CIF=citation index factor; RCT=randomised controlled trial; CSS=comparator sample size; PD=publication delay (difference between publication year and end of study).
*Kruskal Wallis (χ2) or Wilcoxon (z).