Increased plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels predict mortality in elderly patients with chronic heart failure.

Chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) is associated with an increase in cytokines and inflammatory markers, particularly in elderly patients in whom chronic inflammation is generally present per se. In the present pilot study, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), a recently discovered cytokine, was analyzed together with different clinical and laboratory parameters in a small cohort of 46 elderly patients with CHF of various degrees. NGAL levels in the cohort were found to be significantly higher than in healthy age-balanced controls (458.5 [62.5-1212.4] vs. 37.8 [15.9-46.5] ng/mL; p = 0.0001). Furthermore, NGAL values increased in parallel with the clinical severity of CHF (New York Heart Association [NYHA] classification), the highest levels being reached in class IV patients (p = 0.0001). After a 2-year follow up, Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that patients with baseline NGAL > 783 ng/mL (best receiver operating characteristic [ROC]-derived cut-off value) had a significantly higher mortality (p = 0.001; log-rank test) and 4.08 hazards ratio (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-12.96) for death than the other subjects considered. Although preliminary, our findings suggest that NGAL plays a pivotal role in the systemic adaptation to chronic heart failure in elderly patients. Moreover, they indicate, for the first time, that measurement of NGAL may be of important prognostic value in the assessment of survival, thus extending the predictive properties of this cytokine beyond the clinical field of renal disease.