Can future suicidal behaviour in depressed patients be predicted?

The determinants of suicidal behaviour over 18 years were examined in a series of 89 depressed in-patients, using index data on clinical features, personality, and history of past loss. Seven variables were selected from univariate analyses and their relationship with (1) the presence or absence, (2) frequency, (3) intent, and (4) medical threat of suicidal behaviour was then explored by generalised linear modelling. Severe dysphoria, past alcoholism and chronic physical illness were most predictive of suicidal attempting; however, different variables predicted the frequency, degree of intent and severity of medical threat of subsequent suicidal attempts. Thus, our results suggest that different aspects of long-term suicidal behaviour have different determinants.