Low red cell production may protect against severe anemia during a malaria infection--insights from modeling.

The malaria parasite causes lysis of red blood cells, resulting in anemia, a major cause of mortality and morbidity. Intuitively, one would expect the production of red blood cells to increase in order to compensate for this loss. However, it has been observed that this response is weaker than would be expected. Furthermore, iron supplementation for iron deficient children in malaria endemic regions can paradoxically adversely affect the clinical outcome of malaria infection. A possible explanation may lie in the preference that some malaria parasites show for infecting immature red blood cells (reticulocytes). In the presence of a parasite preference for immature red cells, a rise in red cell production can 'fuel the fire' of infection by increasing the availability of the parasite's preferred target cell. We present a mathematical model of red blood cell production and infection in order to explore this hypothesis. We assess the effect of varying the reticulocyte replacement rate and preference of the parasite for reticulocytes on four key outcome measures assessing anemia and parasitemia. For a given level of parasite preference for reticulocytes we uncover an optimal erythropoietic response which minimizes disease severity. Increasing red blood cell production much above this optimum confers no benefit to the patient, and in fact can increase the degree of anemia and parasitemia. These conclusions are consistent with epidemiological studies demonstrating that both iron deficiency and anemia are protective against severe malaria, whilst iron supplementation in malaria endemic regions is with an increased number of malaria related adverse effects. Thus, suppression of red blood cell production, rather than being an unfortunate side effect of inflammation, may be a host protective effect against severe malarial anemia.