Modelling the long-term soil response to atmospheric deposition at intensively monitored forest plots in Europe.

The dynamic soil chemistry model SMART was applied to 121 intensive forest monitoring plots (mainly located in western and northern Europe) for which both element input (deposition) and element concentrations in the soil solution were available. After calibration of poorly known parameters, the model accurately simulated soil solution concentrations for most plots as indicated by goodness-of-fit measures, although some of the intra-annual variation especially in nitrate and aluminium concentrations could not be reproduced. Model evaluations of two emission-deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reductions) for the period 1970-2030 show a strong reduction in sulphate concentrations between 1980 and 2000 in the soil due to the high reductions in sulphur emissions. However, current legislation hardly reduces future nitrogen concentrations, whereas maximum feasible reductions reduces them by more than half. Maximum feasible reductions are also more effective in increasing pH and reducing aluminium concentrations, mostly below 'critical' values.