Regional persistence of an endemic plant, Erigeron acer subsp. decoloratus, in disturbed riparian habitats.

Regional persistence of species requires a positive balance between colonizations and local extinctions. In this study, we examined the amount of colonizations and extinctions and their likelihood as a function of patch size, isolation, and habitat characteristics of a riparian perennial plant, Erigeron acer subsp. decoloratus. We also studied the importance of patch dynamics to the regional population growth. Over five successive years, we counted the number of plant patches along 43 km of riverside. Most patches were small in area and population size. The annual finite growth rate in the number of patches varied between years, but the geometric mean was close to 1.0, indicating a viable patch network in spite of local extinctions. Extinction rate was highest on steep slopes and for small patches with few individual plants and a small patch area. When the patches were classified into different stage classes, the most common fate was stasis, i.e., the patch remained at the same stage. Patch survival and local, within-patch dynamics were most important during this five-year period. Between-patch dynamics (including colonization for example) accounted for 5-10% of annual transitions. The overall dynamics were relatively similar to those of other plant species subjected to riparian disturbance regimes. In the long run, the survival of the species depends on how well it is able to escape from competition from forest and meadow species and track the availability of suitable habitats. This kind of habitat tracking differs from classical metapopulation dynamics. In the former, local extinctions occur as a consequence of adverse changes in the habitat and recolonizations are rare, whereas metapopulation models assume a highly persistent habitat structure with frequent recolonizations. In this respect, the regional dynamics of perennial plants in disturbed riparian habitats may differ from classical metapopulations.