Predicting health plan member retention from satisfaction surveys: the moderating role of intention and complaint voicing.

Many health plans have tried to increase member retention by improving their scores on customer satisfaction surveys. However, prior research has demonstrated weak relationships between member satisfaction and retention, suggesting that other variables are needed to understand how satisfaction impacts member retention. In a longitudinal study 4,806 health plan members who completed satisfaction surveys were re-assessed three years later; we compared measures of satisfaction, intention, and complaining behavior from voluntary disenrollees and retained members. The relationship between satisfaction and retention was moderated by members' intentions to disenroll. The findings suggest that health plans can enhance the predictive validity of their satisfaction surveys by including measures of both satisfaction and intentions.