Changing Mycobacterium tuberculosis population highlights clade-specific pathogenic characteristics.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains can be classified into a number of major clades according to defined evolutionary markers. It is hypothesised that strains comprising these clades have evolved different properties which may influence a local strain population structure. To investigate this, we analysed the incidence of tuberculosis caused by the predominant clades (Beijing, Haarlem, LAM, Quebec and the Low-Copy Clade) found in a community within the Cape Town metropole in South Africa over a 12-year period. We found that while the incidence of cases infected with strains of the Haarlem, LAM, Quebec and the Low-Copy Clades remained relatively stable, that of cases of the Beijing clade increased exponentially over time, with a doubling time of 4.86 years (P=0.018). This growth was exclusively attributable to drug-susceptible strains. Although drug-resistant Beijing cases remained constant in number, non-Beijing drug-resistant cases declined over time (P=0.007). Drug-susceptible Beijing-infected cases had a greater proportion of smear-positive sputa than their non-Beijing counterparts (P=0.013) and were less likely to be successfully treated (retreatment cases) (P=0.026). Recent evidence suggests that these differences likely reflect enhanced pathogenicity rather than transmissibility. The rapid emergence of Beijing strains demonstrates adaptation to conditions within the study community and poses a grave challenge to future TB control.