Impact of phosphorus load reduction on water quality in a stratified reservoir-eutrophication modeling study.

Monitoring data collected from the Mingder Reservoir in Taiwan indicate that the water quality is between mesotrophic and eutrophic. Chlorophyll a concentration is higher in the summer and anoxic conditions occur in the bottom. The data also reveal that a pronounced vertical thermal gradient in summer and vertical mixing the end of fall. A vertical two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted to simulate the water surface elevation, water temperature, and water quality conditions in the water column. The modeling effort was supported with monitoring data collected in the field for a 2-year period in the reservoir. The hydrodynamic model reproduced the time series water surface elevation. Spatial and temporal distributions of temperature in the water column of the reservoir were also well reproduced by the hydrodynamic model. Model-calculated concentrations of key water quality constituents such as nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and algal biomass matched the measured values closely in the reservoir. The calibrated model was then applied to simulate water quality response to various nutrient reduction scenarios. Results of the model scenario runs reveal that a 20% and 80% reduction of the phosphorus loads will improve the water quality from eutrophic to mesotrophic and oligotrophic conditions, respectively. The modeling effort has yielded valuable information that can be used by decision makers for the evaluation of different management strategies of reducing watershed nutrient loads.