Correlation between meteorological factors and tick-borne encephalitis incidence in the Czech Republic.

The objective was to discover whether there any demonstrable relationships exist between the incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases and current meteorological factors and to specify their character. Epidemiological data were extracted from the EPIDAT database (National Institute of Public Health, Prague). Analyzed were a total of 4,613 TBE cases registered in the whole Czech Republic (1994-2001) and 4,637 cases registered in the territory of Bohemia (1994-2004). Meteorological data were from the database of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in Prague. A linear relationship has been found between TBE incidence and temperature factors in all the years under study. Lagged cross correlation was used (with the lags in time respective to incubation period from infected tick attack to initial TBE symptoms) and close relations were found for daily mean air temperature and lags 6-14 days (with a peak of 9 days). Effects of the current course of the meteorological situation (as well as long-term year-to-year changes) on TBE incidence are, foremost, mediated by the influence of climatic factors on Ixodes ricinus ticks and their host-seeking activity; under certain conditions, also by the effects of momentary weather on human behavior as TBE in the Czech Republic is a recreational disease connected with outdoor activities.