The utility of infancy weight curves for the prediction of linear growth retardation in preschool children.

Routine weight measurements, recorded on health cards of 95 Congolese infants, were collected during a cross-sectional survey as the children were aged 1 to 5 years. The subjects were divided into two groups according to height-for-age (more or less than -2 SD of NCHS reference) at the time of the survey. Adjustment of a mathematical function to the infancy weight curves allowed comparison of groups using the means of the function's parameters: The stunted children had been significantly lighter than the healthy group during infancy. Predictive values of estimated weights and quarterly weight gains were assessed by discriminant analysis and cut-off points were computed. The weight gain between 3 and 6 months of age predicted stunting just as well as weight at age 1 year did. Sensitivity and specificity were at 77% and 74%, respectively. These results suggest that good prediction of stunting is possible from first-year weight measurements.