Metabolic Syndrome and the Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke among Middle-Aged Japanese.

Limited information is available regarding risk of cardiovascular disease and trends for the metabolic syndrome in Asia. We examined the impact of the metabolic syndrome and its components on risk of cardiovascular disease among middle-aged Japanese according to four criteria. We followed 2,613 subjects from a rural Japanese community who participated in cardiovascular health examinations between 1990 and 1993. After 27,477 person-years of follow-up through 2003, there were 42 incidents of ischemic heart disease, 73 total strokes (54 ischemic and 18 hemorrhagic), and 115 total cases of cardiovascular disease. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII), American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and Japanese criteria. The multivariable hazard ratios (95%CI) associated with the metabolic syndrome based on NCEP-ATPIII criteria were 2.1 (1.1-4.0) for ischemic heart disease, 1.7 (1.0-2.7) for total stroke, 2.0 (1.2-3.5) for ischemic stroke, 1.1 (0.4-2.8) for hemorrhagic stroke, 2.0 (1.3-3.1) for ischemic cardiovascular disease, and 1.7 (1.2-2.5) for total cardiovascular disease. The population-attributable fractions of the metabolic syndrome based on NCEP-ATPIII criteria were 26-27% for ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke and 20% for total cardiovascular disease. The metabolic syndrome based on AHA/NHLBI, IDF and Japanese criteria had weaker associations with risk of cardiovascular disease, and the association with risk of ischemic heart disease was not statistically significant. The metabolic syndrome based on NCEP-ATP III criteria predicted risks of ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke and total cardiovascular disease, whereas that based on three other criteria predicted them less effectively.