OBJECTIVE: To assess the temporal and spatial evolution of the leprosy endemy in the state of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. METHODS: This is an ecological-social study that used the number of leprosy cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2006. Monthly series were generated in each regional health department, and their sequences were adjusted by a Markovian model for the leprosy detection coefficients. The detection coefficient with the number of cases accumulated in the period in each municipality was used to produce the spatial distribution of the endemy; a correlation analysis was carried out with the leprosy detection coefficients and the components of the Social Responsibility Index of the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: Of the 645 municipalities of the state of São Paulo, 22 did not detect leprosy cases in the period. In the majority of regions, the endemy showed a decreasing trend; the time series presented random fluctuation around expected values. The decline was influenced by a generalized decrease in the detection coefficients at the end of 2005. There was a positive correlation between the detection coefficients and the components "schooling" and "longevity", of the Social Responsibility Index of the state of São Paulo, and a negative correlation with "wealth", another component of the same Index. CONCLUSIONS: The result of the time series analysis suggests that the endemy is on the decline in the majority of regions of the state of São Paulo, while the spatial analysis shows that the coefficients are high in the northern part of the state.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the temporal and spatial evolution of the leprosy endemy in the state of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. METHODS: This is an ecological-social study that used the number of leprosy cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2006. Monthly series were generated in each regional health department, and their sequences were adjusted by a Markovian model for the leprosy detection coefficients. The detection coefficient with the number of cases accumulated in the period in each municipality was used to produce the spatial distribution of the endemy; a correlation analysis was carried out with the leprosy detection coefficients and the components of the Social Responsibility Index of the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: Of the 645 municipalities of the state of São Paulo, 22 did not detect leprosy cases in the period. In the majority of regions, the endemy showed a decreasing trend; the time series presented random fluctuation around expected values. The decline was influenced by a generalized decrease in the detection coefficients at the end of 2005. There was a positive correlation between the detection coefficients and the components "schooling" and "longevity", of the Social Responsibility Index of the state of São Paulo, and a negative correlation with "wealth", another component of the same Index. CONCLUSIONS: The result of the time series analysis suggests that the endemy is on the decline in the majority of regions of the state of São Paulo, while the spatial analysis shows that the coefficients are high in the northern part of the state.
Authors: Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos; Mellina Yamamura; Luiz Henrique Arroyo; Marcela Paschoal Popolin; Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto; Pedro Fredemir Palha; Severina Alice da Costa Uchoa; Flávia Meneguetti Pieri; Ione Carvalho Pinto; Regina Célia Fiorati; Ana Angélica Rêgo de Queiroz; Aylana de Souza Belchior; Danielle Talita Dos Santos; Maria Concebida da Cunha Garcia; Juliane de Almeida Crispim; Luana Seles Alves; Thaís Zamboni Berra; Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio Journal: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Date: 2017-02-27
Authors: Daiane Santos Dos Santos; Nadia Cristina Duppre; Anna Maria Sales; José Augusto da Costa Nery; Euzenir Nunes Sarno; Mariana Andréa Hacker Journal: J Trop Med Date: 2013-04-10
Authors: Maria Eduarda Gomes da Cruz Silva; Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza; Susanne Pinheiro Costa e Silva; Flávia Monteiro da Costa; Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo Journal: An Bras Dermatol Date: 2015 Nov-Dec Impact factor: 1.896