| Literature DB >> 18992258 |
Alberto d'Onofrio1, Piero Manfredi.
Abstract
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of the available information on the present and the past disease prevalence. We show that social behavior change alone may trigger sustained oscillations. This indicates that human behavior might be a critical explaining factor of oscillations in time-series of endemic diseases. Finally, we briefly show how the inclusion of seasonal variations in contacts may imply chaos.Entities:
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Year: 2008 PMID: 18992258 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.005
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Theor Biol ISSN: 0022-5193 Impact factor: 2.691