A generic theoretical model for biological control of foliar plant diseases.

We have developed a generic modelling framework to understand the dynamics of foliar pathogen and biocontrol agent (BCA) populations in order to predict the likelihood of successful biocontrol in relation to the mechanisms involved. The model considers biocontrol systems for foliar pathogens only and, although it is most applicable to fungal BCA systems, does not address a specific biocontrol system. Four biocontrol mechanisms (competition, antibiosis, mycoparasitism and induced resistance) were included within the model rubric. Because of the wide range of mechanisms involved we use Trichoderma/Botrytis as an exemplar system. Qualitative analysis of the model showed that the rates of a BCA colonising diseased and/or healthy plant tissues and the time that the BCA remains active are two of the more important factors in determining the final outcome of a biocontrol system. Further evaluation of the model indicated that the dynamic path to the steady-state population levels also depends critically on other parameters such as the host-pathogen infection rate. In principle, the model can be extended to include other potential mechanisms, including spatio-temporal heterogeneity, fungicide effects, non-fungal BCA and strategies for BCA application, although with a cost in model tractability and ease of interpretation.