Forecasting Sclerotinia Disease on Lettuce: A Predictive Model for Carpogenic Germination of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Sclerotia.

ABSTRACT A predictive model for production of apothecia by carpogenic germination of sclerotia is presented for Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. The model is based on the assumption that a conditioning phase must be completed before a subsequent germination phase can occur. Experiments involving transfer of sclerotia from one temperature regime to another allowed temperature-dependent rates to be derived for conditioning and germination for two S. sclerotiorum isolates. Although the response of each isolate to temperature was slightly different, sclerotia were fully conditioned after 2 to 6 days at 5 degrees C in soil but took up to 80 days at 15 degrees C. Subsequent germination took more than 200 days at 5 degrees C and 33 to 52 days at 20 degrees C. Upper temperature thresholds for conditioning and germination were 20 and 25 degrees C, respectively. A predictive model for production of apothecia derived from these data was successful in simulating the germination of multiple burials of sclerotia in the field when a soil water potential threshold of between -4.0 and -12.25 kilopascals (kPa) was imposed. The use of a germination model as part of a disease forecasting system for Sclerotinia disease in lettuce is discussed.