Pablo Kuri-Morales1. 1. Dirección General del Centro Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica y Control de Enfermedades, Secretaría de Salud, México DF, México. pkuri@dgepi.salud.gob.mx
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Influenza is a viral respiratory disease. Several influenza pandemics have taken place during previous years. This paper aims to describe models that allow construction of influenza behavior scenarios during a pandemia. METHODS: The impact of an influenza pandemic in Mexico was estimated using models from the FluAid and FluSurge computer software. To obtain minimum, most probable and maximum models, 15, 25 and 35% attack rates were analyzed. A series of assumptions were established including pandemic duration, hospitalization and mortality rates. RESULTS: With an attack rate of 25%, if no interventions to mitigate the pandemic were implemented, 54 104 estimated deaths would occur. In the most probable scenario, an estimate of hospitalizations that would occur is 250 829. More than 14 million medical consultations attributable to the pandemic are expected in the eight-week period that the event lasts. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented herein emphasize the need to develop contingency plans to face the threat that an influenza pandemic represents for Mexico's public health system.
BACKGROUND: Influenza is a viral respiratory disease. Several influenza pandemics have taken place during previous years. This paper aims to describe models that allow construction of influenza behavior scenarios during a pandemia. METHODS: The impact of an influenza pandemic in Mexico was estimated using models from the FluAid and FluSurge computer software. To obtain minimum, most probable and maximum models, 15, 25 and 35% attack rates were analyzed. A series of assumptions were established including pandemic duration, hospitalization and mortality rates. RESULTS: With an attack rate of 25%, if no interventions to mitigate the pandemic were implemented, 54 104 estimated deaths would occur. In the most probable scenario, an estimate of hospitalizations that would occur is 250 829. More than 14 million medical consultations attributable to the pandemic are expected in the eight-week period that the event lasts. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented herein emphasize the need to develop contingency plans to face the threat that an influenza pandemic represents for Mexico's public health system.
Authors: José A Córdova-Villalobos; Elsa Sarti; Jacqueline Arzoz-Padrés; Gabriel Manuell-Lee; Josefina Romero Méndez; Pablo Kuri-Morales Journal: Health Res Policy Syst Date: 2009-09-28