A stochastic model for estimation of mutation rates in multiple-replication proliferation processes.

In this paper we propose a stochastic model based on the branching process for estimation and comparison of the mutation rates in proliferation processes of cells or microbes. We assume in this model that cells or microbes (the elements of a population) are reproduced by generations and thus the model is more suitably applicable to situations in which the new elements in a population are produced by older elements from the previous generation rather than by newly created elements from the same current generation. Cells and bacteria proliferate by binary replication, whereas the RNA viruses proliferate by multiple replication. The model is in terms of multiple replications, which includes the special case of binary replication. We propose statistical procedures for estimation and comparison of the mutation rates from data of multiple cultures with divergent culture sizes. The mutation rate is defined as the probability of mutation per replication per genome and thus can be assumed constant in the entire proliferation process. We derive the number of cultures for planning experiments to achieve desired accuracy for estimation or desired statistical power for comparing the mutation rates of two strains of microbes. We establish the efficiency of the proposed method by demonstrating how the estimation of mutation rates would be affected when the culture sizes were assumed similar but actually diverge.