Future funding for mental health and substance abuse: increasing burdens for the public sector.

Spending on mental health (MH) and substance abuse (SA) treatment is expected to double between 2003 and 2014, to $239 billion, and is anticipated to continue falling as a share of all health spending. By 2014, our projections of SA spending show increasing responsibility for state and local governments (45 percent); deteriorating shares financed by private insurance (7 percent); and 42 percent of SA spending going to specialty SA centers. For MH, Medicaid is forecasted to fund an increasingly larger share of treatment costs (27 percent), and prescription medications are expected to capture 30 percent of MH spending by 2014.