A national risk assessment for intersex in fish arising from steroid estrogens.

The occurrence of intersex fish is widespread in the rivers of England and Wales. The extent of intersex in fish populations is believed to be strongly linked to their exposure to steroid estrogens. The present study presents, to our knowledge, the first national, catchment-based risk assessment for steroid estrogens in the world. A graphical information system-based model predicted the concentrations of estradiol (E2), estrone, and ethinylestradiol, which were combined and compared with known biological effect levels to predict the risk of endocrine disruption for 10,313 individual river reaches (21,452 km) receiving effluent from more than 2000 sewage treatment plants serving more than 29 million people. The large scale of this assessment underlines the usefulness of computer-based risk assessment methods. Overall, 61% [corrected] of the modeled reaches (all percentages are in terms of the total river length modeled) in England and Wales were predicted to be not at risk from endocrine disruption (mean concentrations, <1 ng/L E2 equivalents). A large range existed in the percentage of river reaches at risk in the various regions, from 5% in Wales to 67% in the Thames catchment. Important factors influencing this proportion are the population density, particularly their location, and the available dilution. A very small proportion of reaches (approximately 1-3%) were predicted to be at high risk (>10 ng/L E2 equivalents). Many of these high-risk reaches, however, were ditches, which were composed almost entirely of sewage effluent. The model could be applied equally well to any other chemical of concern emanating from the human population that would be impractical to assess by measurement.