Estimates of natural selection due to protein tertiary structure inform the ancestry of biallelic loci.

We consider the inference of which of two alleles is ancestral when the alleles have a single nonsynonymous difference and when natural selection acts via protein tertiary structure. Whereas the probability that an allele is ancestral under neutrality is equal to its frequency, under selection this probability depends on allele frequency and on the magnitude and direction of selection pressure. Although allele frequencies can be well estimated from intraspecific data, small fitness differences have a large evolutionary impact but can be difficult to estimate with only intraspecific data. Methods for predicting aspects of phenotype from genotype can supplement intraspecific sequence data. Recently developed statistical techniques can assess effects of phenotypes, such as protein tertiary structure on molecular evolution. While these techniques were initially designed for comparing protein-coding genes from different species, the resulting interspecific inferences can be assigned population genetic interpretations to assess the effect of selection pressure, and we use them here along with intraspecific allele frequency data to estimate the probability that an allele is ancestral. We focus on 140 nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms of humans that are in proteins with known tertiary structures. We find that our technique for employing protein tertiary structure information yields some biologically plausible results but that it does not substantially improve the inference of ancestral human allele types.