Multilocus patterns of nucleotide polymorphism and the demographic history of Populus tremula.

I have studied nucleotide polymorphism and linkage disequilibrium using multilocus data from 77 fragments, with an average length of fragments of 550 bp, in the deciduous tree Populus tremula (Salicaceae). The frequency spectrum across loci showed a modest excess of mutations segregating at low frequency and a marked excess of high-frequency derived mutations at silent sites, relative to neutral expectations. These excesses were also seen at replacement sites, but were not so pronounced for high-frequency derived mutations. There was a marked excess of low-frequency mutations at replacement sites, likely indicating deleterious amino acid-changing mutations that segregate at low frequencies in P. tremula. I used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to evaluate a number of different demographic scenarios and to estimate parameters for the best-fitting model. The data were found to be consistent with a historical reduction in the effective population size of P. tremula through a bottleneck. The timing inferred for this bottleneck is largely consistent with geological data and with data from several other long-lived plant species. The results show that P. tremula harbors substantial levels of nucleotide polymorphism with the posterior mode of the scaled mutation rate, theta = 0.0177 across loci. The ABC analyses also provided an estimate of the scaled recombination rate that indicates that recombination rates in P. tremula are likely to be 2-10 times higher than the mutation rate. This study reinforces the notion that linkage disequilibrium is low and decays to negligible levels within a few hundred base pairs in P. tremula.