Impact of climate variation on mosquito abundance in California.

Temporal variation in the abundance of the encephalitis virus vector mosquito, Culex tarsalis Coquillet, was linked significantly with coincident and antecedent measures of regional climate, including temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomaly. Although variable among traps, historical records that spanned two to five decades revealed climate influences on spring and summer mosquito abundance as early as the previous fall through early summer. Correlations between winter and spring precipitation and snow pack and spring Cx. tarsalis abundance were stronger than correlations with summer abundance. Spring abundance was also correlated positively with winter and spring temperature, whereas summer abundance correlated negatively with spring temperature and not significantly with summer temperature. Correlations with antecedent climate provide the opportunity to forecast vector abundance and therefore encephalitis virus risk, a capability useful in intervention decision support systems at local and state levels.