Spatial and temporal patterns in pupal and adult production of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

We investigated how temporal and spatial effects confound the functional relationship between pupal and adult populations of Aedes aegypti and thus the value of pupal numbers as predictors of dengue transmission risk in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. We found considerable seasonal shifts in productivity of key containers. Tires contained much less pupae in the dry season than in the wet season. Earthenware jars and cement tanks for washing purposes were consistent producers over the entire study period. Houses in the two villages, with approximately twice as many houses per unit area, were significantly more likely to have adults and pupae. No significant annual, seasonal, or spatial effects on the strength of correlations between pupal and adult populations were found. Except for 2 (of 16) occasions, pupal, and adult populations were correlated strongly in time and space. Our results are consistent with application of the pupal survey technique for assessing dengue transmission risk.