Bayesian reasoning in medicine: the contributions of Lee B. Lusted, MD.

The role of Bayesian reasoning in medicine is explored from the perspective of the writings of Dr. Lee B. Lusted. Starting with the influential article by Ledley and Lusted published in Science in 1959, the contributions of Dr. Lusted and his coauthors to medical education and clinical medicine are chronicled. An explication of Bayes' theorem and its reliance on the conditional independence assumption is followed by a summary of some applications to the interpretation of diagnostic tests. Opportunities for and challenges to the widespread application of Bayesian reasoning in daily clinical medicine are described.