Initial healing rates as predictive factors of venous ulcer healing: the use of a laser-based three-dimensional ulcer measurement.

There is a need for practical methods to predict the healing time of venous leg ulcers. In a prospective cohort study of 81 patients with venous leg ulcers, we used a recently described laser-based three-dimensional measurement of the ulcers at days 0 and 28 to estimate the predictive power of horizontal (HIHR) and vertical initial healing rates (VIHR) for wound healing by week 24. The rates were calculated by Gilman's equation [(A(1)-A(2))/((p(1)+p(2))/2)((0-4))] and by its modification [(V(1)-V(2))/((A(1)+A(2))/2)((0-4))], respectively. The influence of risk factors on both the initial healing rates was also studied. The HIHR and VIHR are important predictors of healing at 24 weeks. They are not influenced by age, ulcer duration, initial ulcer area, and insufficient sapheno-femoral junction, and/or calf perforating veins. Together with ulcer duration, they are independent predictors of the 24-week healing (the area under ROC curve equals to 0.9). VIHR gives us additional information and significantly improves the prediction of 24-week healing.