OBJECTIVES: To estimate the budgetary impact of varenicline in the United Kingdom (UK) in the first 5 years after its introduction to the smoking-cessation aid market, from the National Health Service (NHS) pharmacy perspective. METHODS: The economic impact of varenicline to the national health budget is estimated in a population of current, former, and new smokers. The analyses are based on data from a variety of secondary sources including national health data, clinical trials, and meta-analyses of smoking-cessation aids. The number of patients seeking aid and the treatment patterns are estimated using 2004 national health surveys, costs for medications from national prescription drug pricing tariffs, and efficacy of the various smoking-cessation aids from clinical trial data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of varying the patient parameters and costs. RESULTS: Model estimates suggest that the budgetary impact of varenicline would be 3.6 million pound in the second year after its introduction, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.63 to 7.2 million pound, and a resultant increase of 0.05% to the total NHS pharmacy budget. The model predicts that the addition of varenicline to the market would result in an additional 162,000 successful smoking-cessation attempts and 103,000 fewer smokers over 5 years, when compared to the world without varenicline. CONCLUSION: The introduction of varenicline is likely to result in greater numbers of individuals succeeding at smoking cessation, with an approximately 3.6 million pound (0.05%) increase in the NHS pharmacy budget.
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the budgetary impact of varenicline in the United Kingdom (UK) in the first 5 years after its introduction to the smoking-cessation aid market, from the National Health Service (NHS) pharmacy perspective. METHODS: The economic impact of varenicline to the national health budget is estimated in a population of current, former, and new smokers. The analyses are based on data from a variety of secondary sources including national health data, clinical trials, and meta-analyses of smoking-cessation aids. The number of patients seeking aid and the treatment patterns are estimated using 2004 national health surveys, costs for medications from national prescription drug pricing tariffs, and efficacy of the various smoking-cessation aids from clinical trial data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of varying the patient parameters and costs. RESULTS: Model estimates suggest that the budgetary impact of varenicline would be 3.6 million pound in the second year after its introduction, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.63 to 7.2 million pound, and a resultant increase of 0.05% to the total NHS pharmacy budget. The model predicts that the addition of varenicline to the market would result in an additional 162,000 successful smoking-cessation attempts and 103,000 fewer smokers over 5 years, when compared to the world without varenicline. CONCLUSION: The introduction of varenicline is likely to result in greater numbers of individuals succeeding at smoking cessation, with an approximately 3.6 million pound (0.05%) increase in the NHS pharmacy budget.