Review of predictive models for Fusarium head blight and related mycotoxin contamination in wheat.

Mould growth and mycotoxin production are related to plant stress caused by environmental factors such as: extreme weather; insect damage; inadequate storage conditions and incorrect fertilization; these predispose plants to mycotoxin contamination in the field. Fusarium species infect wheat during the flowering period. In addition to losses of yield, these fungi can also synthesize toxic components (mycotoxins) in suitable environmental conditions, thus threatening animal and human health. Given the severe consequences and the fact that mycotoxins affect production throughout the world, the ability to predict Fusarium head blight (FHB) and deoxynivalenol (DON) and other mycotoxin contamination is important to reduce the year-to-year risk for producers. Owing to these dangerous consequences in Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Italy, the United States and in Europe, computer models, based on weather variables (temperature, rainfall and moisture level), have been developed to predict the occurrence of FHB and DON contamination in wheat.