BACKGROUND: MRI is often used as primary outcome measure in phase II clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Since persistent T1 hypointense lesions are a surrogate parameter for axonal damage and demyelination, they may serve as a marker for monitoring the efficacy of neuroprotective drugs. At present, a power analysis using black hole (BH) evolution as primary outcome measure has not been performed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of using BH evolution on serial brain MR images as primary outcome measure in proof of concept studies in MS. METHODS: MRI-data obtained from 169 active RRMS patients were analysed for BH evolution by determining the cumulative number of contrast enhancing lesions (CEL) evolving into a persistent black hole (PBH) after 3 months. With a parametric simulation procedure, based on a statistical distribution fitting the data, sample sizes were calculated. RESULTS: 21.2% of the total number of CELs observed during the study period evolved into a PBH. Ring enhancing lesions evolved most frequently into a PBH (59.4%), followed by lesions larger than 10 mm (57.4%) and periventricular CELs (30.6%). The simulation procedure, based on the statistical negative binomial (NB) model resulted in a sample sizes between 200 subjects and 30 subjects per arm, for treatment effects ranging from 50% to 90% reduction of the number of CELs evolving into a PBH, respectively. CONCLUSION: To perform a MRI monitored phase II clinical trial with a feasible sample size, using the evolution of CELs into PBHs as primary outcome parameter, a potent drug is required to obtain sufficient power.
RCT Entities:
BACKGROUND: MRI is often used as primary outcome measure in phase II clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Since persistent T1 hypointense lesions are a surrogate parameter for axonal damage and demyelination, they may serve as a marker for monitoring the efficacy of neuroprotective drugs. At present, a power analysis using black hole (BH) evolution as primary outcome measure has not been performed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of using BH evolution on serial brain MR images as primary outcome measure in proof of concept studies in MS. METHODS: MRI-data obtained from 169 active RRMS patients were analysed for BH evolution by determining the cumulative number of contrast enhancing lesions (CEL) evolving into a persistent black hole (PBH) after 3 months. With a parametric simulation procedure, based on a statistical distribution fitting the data, sample sizes were calculated. RESULTS: 21.2% of the total number of CELs observed during the study period evolved into a PBH. Ring enhancing lesions evolved most frequently into a PBH (59.4%), followed by lesions larger than 10 mm (57.4%) and periventricular CELs (30.6%). The simulation procedure, based on the statistical negative binomial (NB) model resulted in a sample sizes between 200 subjects and 30 subjects per arm, for treatment effects ranging from 50% to 90% reduction of the number of CELs evolving into a PBH, respectively. CONCLUSION: To perform a MRI monitored phase II clinical trial with a feasible sample size, using the evolution of CELs into PBHs as primary outcome parameter, a potent drug is required to obtain sufficient power.
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Authors: D G MacManus; D H Miller; L Kappos; R Gold; E Havrdova; V Limmroth; C H Polman; K Schmierer; T A Yousry; M Eraksoy; E Meluzinova; M Dufek; M Yang; G N O'Neill; K Dawson Journal: J Neurol Date: 2010-10-21 Impact factor: 4.849
Authors: M Filippi; M A Rocca; F Camesasca; S Cook; P O'Connor; B G W Arnason; L Kappos; D Goodin; D Jeffery; H-P Hartung; G Comi; J S Wolinsky; T Bogumil; C Pohl; K Beckmann; R Sandbrink; E Croze; C Brown; T M Desimone; D L Arnold; G Cutter; V Knappertz Journal: Neurology Date: 2011-04-05 Impact factor: 9.910