How much will China weigh? Perspectives from consumption structure and technology development.

Current patterns and future possibilities of China's material metabolism are evaluated from perspectives of consumption structure change and technology development using the approach of input-output modeling to integrate ecological and economic systems. A physical input monetary output (PIMO) model is created and is applied to the Chinese economy with 43 sectors and 25 material categories. A set of scenarios, five exploring aspects of consumption structure change and three doing the same for technology development, is analyzed to quantitatively predict China's future possible material metabolism patterns in 2010. The results provide a foundation for quantitative studies of resource consumption and waste generation in China, which given its increasing pivotal role in manufacturing is also helpful for research on the material metabolism of the entire world.