Pollen flow in the wildservice tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. IV. Whole interindividual variance of male fecundity estimated jointly with the dispersal kernel.

Interindividual variance of male reproductive success (MRS) contributes to genetic drift, which in turn interacts with selection and migration to determine the short-term response of populations to rapid changes in their environment. Individual relative MRS can be estimated through paternity analysis and can be further dissected into fecundity and spatial components. Existing methods to achieve this decomposition either rely on the strong assumption of a random distribution of pollen donors (TwoGener) or estimate only the part of the variance of male fecundity that is explained by few covariates. We developed here a method to estimate jointly the whole variance of male fecundity and the pollen dispersal curve from the genotypic information of sampled seeds and their putative fathers and geographical information of all individuals in the study area. We modelled the relative individual fecundities as a log-normally distributed random effect. We used a Bayesian approach, well suited to the hierarchical nature of the model, to estimate these fecundities. When applied to Sorbus torminalis, the estimated variance of male fecundity corresponded to an effective density of trees 13 times lower than the observed density (d(obs)/d(ep ) approximately 13). This value is between the value (approximately 2) estimated with a classical mating model including three covariates (neighbourhood density, diameter, flowering intensity) that affect fecundity and the value (approximately 30) estimated with TwoGener. The estimated dispersal kernel was close to previous results. This approach allows fine monitoring of ongoing genetic drift in natural populations, and quantitative dissection of the processes contributing to drift, including human actions.