Cost savings threshold analysis of a capacity-building program for HIV prevention organizations.

Although the incidence of HIV each year remains steady, prevention funding is increasingly competitive. Programs need to justify costs in terms of evaluation outcomes, including economic ones. Threshold analyses set performance standards to determine program effectiveness relative to that threshold. This method was used to evaluate the potential cost savings of a national capacity-building program for HIV prevention organizations. Program costs were compared with the lifetime treatment costs of HIV, yielding an estimate of the HIV infections that would have to be prevented for the program to be cost saving. The 136 persons who completed the capacity-building program between 2000 and 2003 would have to avert 41 cases of HIV for the program to be considered cost saving. These figures represent less than one tenth of 1% of the 40,000 new HIV infections that occur in the United States annually and suggest a reasonable performance standard. These data underscore the resources needed to prevent HIV.