Predicting arterial stiffness with ambulatory blood pressure: an 11-year follow-up.

No prospective data have been published on whether ambulatory blood pressure (BP) works better than casual measurements in predicting arterial stiffness. This study with 11-year follow-up was launched to evaluate the usefulness of ambulatory intra-arterial BP in predicting pulse wave velocity (PWV). Ninety-seven previously healthy men were recruited from a routine physical check-up at baseline. BP was measured with standard cuff and intra-arterial ambulatory methods. Sixty-seven subjects with no antihypertensive medication were enrolled for a visit after a follow-up of 11 years. Arterial stiffness was estimated with PWV derived with impedance cardiography. Ambulatory 24-h systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = 0.30, P = 0.01), 24-h mean arterial pressure (r = 0.27, P = 0.03), 24-h pulse pressure (r = 0.27, P = 0.03) and daytime SBP (r = 0.26, P = 0.03) were the best BP variables in predicting future PWV. Casual BP values did not bear significant correlations with future PWV. In hierarchical regression analysis, the best predictive value for future PWV was achieved with the model including ambulatory 24-h SBP, smoking (number of cigarettes) and age (adjusted R(2) = 0.26). In conclusion, to our knowledge, this is the only prospective follow-up study to show that ambulatory BP is superior to casual BP measurement in predicting future PWV.