Estimated one-yr glomerular filtration rate is an excellent predictor of long-term graft survival in pediatric first kidney transplants.

Acute rejection episodes following pediatric renal transplantation have been progressively reduced by recent immunosuppressive regimens. Nevertheless, grafts continue to fail over time and surrogate parameters for long-term RGS are lacking. We investigated post-transplant renal function within the first yr as an independent predictor of long-term RGS in 104 pediatric first kidney transplant recipients (mean age 11.1 +/- 3.9 yr; mean follow-up 8.3 +/- 3.5 yr) transplanted between January 1989 and December 2000. GFR was assessed by use of the Schwartz formula at 30 days and six and 12 months after transplantation, respectively. Patients were further stratified at all times according to GFR: (i) GFR<45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), (ii) GFR 45-80 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and (iii) GFR>80 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Cox regression analysis including factors potentially influencing long-term RGS, e.g., age, gender, transplant yr, HLA-mismatch, underlying renal disease, clinical acute rejection, absolute GFR as well as the change in GFR within the first yr was performed. Graft failure occurred in 24 out of 104 patients (23%) 6.2 yr (mean) after transplantation corresponding to a cumulative five-yr graft survival of 87.5%. GFRs at 30 days and six and 12 months were significantly associated with long-term RGS in the univariate cox regression analysis (GFR at 30 days, p = 0.045; GFR at six months, p = 0.004; GFR at 12 months, p < 0.001). None of the other variables were significant parameters of correlation. Multivariate cox analysis revealed a GFR below 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at 12 months after transplantation as the only independent predictor of long-term RGS (hazard ratio 55.9, 95% CI 5.29-591, p = 0.001). GFR at 12 months post-transplant is an excellent surrogate parameter for long-term RGS in children. This parameter might be useful as a primary end-point in short-term pediatric clinical trials.