Predicting geographic and ecological distributions of triatomine species in the southern Mexican state of Puebla using ecological niche modeling.

We analyzed the geographic distribution using ecological niche modeling of three species of triatomines distributed in the Mexican state of Puebla. Punctual records were gathered for a period of 5 yr of fieldwork sampling. We used the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) to achieve the potential distribution of the ecological niche of triatomines. The models showed that Triatoma barberi and Meccus pallidipennis are sympatric and widely distributed in the central-southern part of the state, whereas T. dimidata is restricted to the northern mountains of the state with no overlapping among other species, M. bassolsae was not modeled because of the scarce number of locality records. We highlighted the warm and dry conditions in southern Puebla as important potential areas for triatomine presence. Finally, we correlated the species potential presence with the human population at risk of acquiring Chagas disease by vector-borne transmission; it is showed that M. pallidipennis presents the highest values of both ecological and poverty risk scenarios representing the main potential vector in the state.