Demographic performance predicts invasiveness of species in the Commelinaceae under high-nutrient conditions.

Demographic models are powerful tools for making predictions about the relative importance of transitions from one life stage (e.g., seeds) to another (e.g., nonreproductives); however, they have never been used to compare the relative performance of invasive and noninvasive taxa. I use demographic models parameterized from common garden experiments to develop hypotheses about the role of different life stage transitions in determining differences in performance in invasive and noninvasive congeners in the Commelinaceae. I also extended nested life table response experiment (LTRE) analyses to accommodate interactions between nested and unnested factors. Invasive species outperformed their noninvasive congeners, especially under high-nutrient conditions. This difference in performance did not appear to be due to differences in elasticities of vital rates, but rather to differences in the magnitude of stage transitions. Self-compatible invasive species had greater fecundity in high-nutrient environments and a shorter time to first reproduction, and all invasive species had greater vegetative reproduction than their noninvasive congeners. Thus greater opportunism in sexual and asexual reproduction explained the greater performance of invasive species under high-nutrient conditions. Similar common garden experiments could become a useful tool to predict potential invaders from pools of potential introductions. I show that short-term and controlled experiments considering multiple nutrient environments may accurately predict invasiveness of nonnative plant species.