| Literature DB >> 18460503 |
Michael D Christian1, Asha V Devereaux, Jeffrey R Dichter, James A Geiling, Lewis Rubinson.
Abstract
In the twentieth century, rarely have mass casualty events yielded hundreds or thousands of critically ill patients requiring definitive critical care. However, future catastrophic natural disasters, epidemics or pandemics, nuclear device detonations, or large chemical exposures may change usual disaster epidemiology and require a large critical care response. This article reviews the existing state of emergency preparedness for mass critical illness and presents an analysis of limitations to support the suggestions of the Task Force on Mass Casualty Critical Care, which are presented in subsequent articles. Baseline shortages of specialized resources such as critical care staff, medical supplies, and treatment spaces are likely to limit the number of critically ill victims who can receive life-sustaining interventions. The deficiency in critical care surge capacity is exacerbated by lack of a sufficient framework to integrate critical care within the overall institutional response and coordination of critical care across local institutions and broader geographic areas.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2008 PMID: 18460503 PMCID: PMC7094433 DOI: 10.1378/chest.07-2707
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Chest ISSN: 0012-3692 Impact factor: 9.410
Department of Homeland Security National Planning Scenarios*
| Scenarios | Description | Potential of Critically Ill Patients (Patients Receiving Mechanical Ventilation), No. | Requirements for Critical Care | Likely Duration of Critical Care | Likely Duration of Ventilation | Probability of External Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear detonation: 10-kiloton improvised nuclear device | Terrorists assemble a nuclear device using highly enriched uranium. The device is detonated in the business district of a large city | Tens to hundreds of thousands (hundreds to thousands) | Burns; blast injury; bone marrow suppression; septic shock; cardiovascular collapse | Patient surges will occur in waves over several weeks | Days to weeks | If a single device, external support is likely but limited by risk of secondary exposure |
| Anthrax attack | A tractor-trailer truck drives through rush-hour traffic in a large urban city spraying approximately 100 L of wet-fill | 13,000–25,000 (approximately 13,000) | Pneumonia with respiratory failure; septic shock; ARDS | Days to weeks | Days to weeks | Likely to arrive in 24 to 96 h if localized attacks only |
| Pandemic influenza | A pandemic of influenza sweeps the globe and affects a state with 11 million people | Approximately 10,000 (approximately 5,700) | ARDS; pneumonia; septic shock; myocardial infarction | Weeks to months | Days to weeks | External assistance unlikely |
| Biological attack with pneumonic plague | Terrorists release pneumonic plague in the bathrooms of the major airport of the city, at the main sports arena, and at the major train station | Approximately 6,000 (approximately 6,000) | Pneumonia; septic shock | Days to weeks | Days to weeks | Likely in 24 to 96 h if an isolated attack; however, because of rapid spread to other cities by those infected at the airport, external help will be delayed |
| Chemical attack: blister agent | Terrorists use a light aircraft to spray a blister agent (sulphur mustard and lewisite) into a packed college football stadium. The attack causes a large number of casualties that require urgent and long-term medical treatment, but few immediate fatalities occur | Hundreds to thousands (hundreds) | Upper airway obstruction; ARDS; trauma injuries from stampede out of stadium; sepsis arising from secondary infections in those with compromised skin | Days to weeks | Days | Likely in 24 to 96 h if an isolated attack |
| Terrorist attack on industrial sites | Terrorists launch rocket-propelled grenades at a petroleum refining plant and bomb several nearby container ships. Multiple fires occur, releasing smoke containing cobalt, nickel, molybdenum, cadmium, mercury, vanadium, platinum, isocyanates, nitriles, and epoxy resins | Hundreds (tens to hundreds) | Burns; blast trauma; smoke inhalation; exacerbation of chronic respiratory conditions | Days to weeks | Days | Likely in 24 to 96 h if an isolated attack |
| Chemical attack: nerve agent | Terrorists release sarin vapor into the ventilation systems of three large commercial office buildings in a metropolitan area. The agent kills 95% of the people in the buildings, and kills or sickens many of the first responders and those in adjacent buildings | Hundreds (tens to hundreds) | Seizures; paralysis; coma; respiratory failure | Days to weeks | Hours to days | Likely in 24 to 96 h if an isolated attack |
| Chlorine tank explosion | A chlorine gas (liquefied under pressure) storage tank ruptures, releasing a large quantity of chlorine gas downwind of the site in Chicago | 15,000–20,000 (8,000–12,000) | ARDS; pulmonary edema | Days to weeks | Days | Likely in 24 to 96 h |
| Earthquake | A 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurs in a major metro area with a population of 10 million | Tens to hundreds (tens to hundreds) | Crush injuries (pulmonary contusions, renal failure) | Days to weeks | Hours to days | Likely in 24 to 96 h |
| Major hurricane | A category 5 hurricane that makes landfall at a major metro area with a storm surge > 20 feet above normal. Low-lying escape routes are inundated by water hours before the eye of the hurricane reaches land | Minimal (may be more if existing infrastructure fails and hospital in affected area is evacuated) | Trauma; sepsis from waterborne infections; drowning | Days | Days | Likely in 24 to 96 h |
| Radiologic attack: radiologic dispersal devices | Terrorists detonate ″dirty bombs″ containing cesium-137 in several major cities | Tens to hundreds (tens to hundreds) | Blast injury; radiation sickness | Days to weeks | Days | Likely in 24 to 96 h |
| Conventional explosion | Terrorists detonate a series of truck bombs and explosives on a transit system | Tens to hundreds (tens to hundreds) | Head injury; lung blast injury; burns; multiple trauma | Days to weeks | Days to weeks | Likely in 24 to 96 h |
| Biological attack: foreign animal disease (foot and mouth disease) | Terrorists introduce disease into the food chain | None | None | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cyber attack | Terrorists conduct cyber attacks against critical infrastructures reliant on the Internet | None | None | N/A | N/A | N/A |
From Department of Homeland Security.13 N/A = not applicable.
Data used for Ontario, Canada. Population approximately 11 million, assuming 35% attack rate over 6 weeks.
Although a cyber attack does not directly result in human casualties, given the highly technology-dependent nature of critical care, and critical infrastructure in general, computer viruses in medical equipment and electronic medical records or losses crippling the capacity for information exchange could lead to large numbers of critically ill patients.