Influence of seed head-attacking biological control agents on spotted knapweed reproductive potential in western Montana over a 30-year period.

Five insect biological control agents that attack flower heads of spotted knapweed, Centaurea stoebe L. subsp. micranthos (Gugler) Hayek, became established in western Montana between 1973 and 1992. In a controlled field experiment in 2006, seed-head insects reduced spotted knapweed seed production per seed head by 84.4%. The seed production at two sites in western Montana where these biological control agents were well established was 91.6-93.8% lower in 2004-2005 than 1974-1975, whereas the number of seed heads per square meter was 70.7% lower, and the reproductive potential (seeds/m(2)) was 95.9-99.0% lower. The average seed bank in 2005 at four sites containing robust spotted knapweed populations was 281 seeds/m(2) compared with 19 seeds/m(2) at four sites where knapweed density has declined. Seed bank densities were much higher at sites in central Montana (4,218 seeds/m(2)), where the insects have been established for a shorter period. Urophora affinis Frauenfeld was the most abundant species at eight study sites, infesting 66.7% of the seed heads, followed by a 47.3% infestation by Larinus minutus Gyllenhal and L. obtusus Gyllenhal. From 1974 to 1985, Urophora spp. apparently reduced the number of seeds per seed head by 34.5-46.9%; the addition of Larinus spp. further reduced seed numbers 84.2-90.5% by 2005. Path analysis indicated that both Larinus spp. and U. affinis contributed significantly to reduction of seed production over the 30-yr period. Spotted knapweed density may not decrease significantly until the seed bank falls below a critical threshold.