BACKGROUND: Nation-wide road casualty figures usually come from police data. In France, as in many developed countries, the reporting of fatalities is almost complete but the reporting of non-fatal casualties is rather low. It is moreover strongly biased. Valid estimates are needed. METHODS: Using the capture-recapture method on police data and on a road trauma registry covering a large county of 1.6 million inhabitants, we estimate police under-reporting correction factors that account for unregistered casualties. These correction factors are then applied to the nation-wide police data, with standardization on under-reporting bias factors. RESULTS: In 2004, whereas the police report 108,727 non-fatally injured, the estimation yields 400,200. Over the 1996-2004 study period, the average annual estimated incidence is 871/100,000 for all injured (3.4 times the police incidence), 232/100,000 for hospitalized, 103/100,000 for seriously injured (2.2 times the police incidence) and 12.6/100,000 for casualties with long-term major impairment. The incidence of seriously injured (NISS 9+) is 11.3/100,000 for pedestrians, 9.5/100,000 for cyclists, 36.3/100,000 for motorized two-wheel users and 42.5/100,000 for car users. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated incidences are much higher than the police-based ones. This changes the scale of the road injuries issue. The risk of suffering a major impairment from a road crash is equal to the risk of being killed. Motorized two-wheel users experience a large burden of traffic casualties, much larger than that indicated by police data. The approach used can be reproduced in other countries, if an additional medical registration exists.
BACKGROUND: Nation-wide road casualty figures usually come from police data. In France, as in many developed countries, the reporting of fatalities is almost complete but the reporting of non-fatal casualties is rather low. It is moreover strongly biased. Valid estimates are needed. METHODS: Using the capture-recapture method on police data and on a road trauma registry covering a large county of 1.6 million inhabitants, we estimate police under-reporting correction factors that account for unregistered casualties. These correction factors are then applied to the nation-wide police data, with standardization on under-reporting bias factors. RESULTS: In 2004, whereas the police report 108,727 non-fatally injured, the estimation yields 400,200. Over the 1996-2004 study period, the average annual estimated incidence is 871/100,000 for all injured (3.4 times the police incidence), 232/100,000 for hospitalized, 103/100,000 for seriously injured (2.2 times the police incidence) and 12.6/100,000 for casualties with long-term major impairment. The incidence of seriously injured (NISS 9+) is 11.3/100,000 for pedestrians, 9.5/100,000 for cyclists, 36.3/100,000 for motorized two-wheel users and 42.5/100,000 for car users. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated incidences are much higher than the police-based ones. This changes the scale of the road injuries issue. The risk of suffering a major impairment from a road crash is equal to the risk of being killed. Motorized two-wheel users experience a large burden of traffic casualties, much larger than that indicated by police data. The approach used can be reproduced in other countries, if an additional medical registration exists.
Authors: Jeffrey R Brubacher; Herbert Chan; Penelope Brasher; Shannon Erdelyi; Edi Desapriya; Mark Asbridge; Roy Purssell; Scott Macdonald; Nadine Schuurman; Ian Pike Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2014-08-14 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Jonathan C Samuel; Edward Sankhulani; Javeria S Qureshi; Paul Baloyi; Charles Thupi; Clara N Lee; William C Miller; Bruce A Cairns; Anthony G Charles Journal: PLoS One Date: 2012-02-15 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Paul Schepers; Niels Agerholm; Emmanuelle Amoros; Rob Benington; Torkel Bjørnskau; Stijn Dhondt; Bas de Geus; Carmen Hagemeister; Becky P Y Loo; Anna Niska Journal: Inj Prev Date: 2014-01-09 Impact factor: 2.399
Authors: Peter James; Kate Ito; Rachel F Banay; Jonathan J Buonocore; Benjamin Wood; Mariana C Arcaya Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2014-10-02 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Hammadoum A Sango; Jean Testa; Nicolas Meda; Benjamin Contrand; Mamadou S Traoré; Pascal Staccini; Emmanuel Lagarde Journal: PLoS One Date: 2016-02-12 Impact factor: 3.240