Predictors of relapse in 300 Brazilian alcoholic patients: a 6-month follow-up study.

Three hundred alcoholic patients were interviewed at hospitalization and again 3 and 6 months thereafter in Porto Alegre, Brazil, from March 2002 to January 2004. Assessment included the SCID-I to check for the presence of Axis I mental disorders, a questionnaire focusing on patient relationship with AA groups, and specific questions about participation in psychotherapy. A logistic regression analysis was performed to determine predictive variables for relapse or abstinence 6 months after discharge. Previous treatment for alcohol dependence (OR = 3.65; CI: 1.77-7.05) and being single (OR = 2.39; CI: 1.06-5.42) proved to be associated with relapse, whereas adherence to AA (OR = 0.31; CI: 0.15-0.66), presence of a comorbid depressive disorder (OR = 0.46; CI: 0.23-0.92), and probably adherence to psychotherapy (OR = 0.52; CI: 0.26-1.04) could be associated with abstinence. These findings reinforce the importance of psychotherapy and AA groups for alcoholics to remain abstinent for longer. The greater adherence to treatment observed among depressive alcohol dependents can be explained by the fact that this is a comorbid condition that acts as a protective factor against relapse.