[AIDS--dynamics in Tanzania: a strategy simulation].

This paper presents computed core results obtained from a PC-based multigroup simulation of the AIDS epidemic in Tanzania. A basic projection as well as several strategic scenarios illustrate the dynamics of AIDS prevalence, mortality, and cost if alternative strategies are assumed. Our model forecasts that in 2010 A. D. HIV prevalence will be between 37 and 46 per cent and AIDS prevalence between 7 and 11 per cent. Around the year 2000 all health care resources will be fully occupied with caring for AIDS patients only.