Simulation of mating disruption and mass trapping with competitive attraction and camouflage.

Simulation models of mass trapping and mating disruption were developed based on correlated random walks (CRW) of flying male moths searching for females. Males encountered pheromone plumes, transformed into a circular probability surface represented as an effective attraction radius (EAR), from females and from dispensers with or without traps. In simulations, parameters of dispenser EAR and density, female EAR and density, female stationary periods, male density, and male orienting times in EAR of dispensers or females were varied, whereas the male CRW parameters (speed, turning angle, and step size) remained constant to evaluate effects on the percentages of females mating. When male orienting time was constant regardless of EAR, the models indicated no difference in mating disruption efficacy between either a higher density of dispensers with smaller EAR or a lower density of dispensers with a compensating larger EAR. However, when the orienting time was increased in proportion to dispenser EAR, fewer dispensers with larger EAR were more effective in reducing female mating than were more numerous ones with smaller EAR. When costs of pheromone are substantial, however, more numerous dispensers of smaller EAR would be more economical because dose-response curves in previous studies indicate release rate must increase exponentially to achieve a linear increase in EAR. The models are useful in understanding the variables affecting the success of insect control programs. More precise measurements of the above parameters in the field are needed before the models can precisely predict outcomes of mating disruption and mass trapping.