PURPOSE: We tested whether total prostate-specific antigen velocity (tPSAv) improves accuracy of a model using PSA level to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. METHODS: During 1974 to 1986 in a preventive medicine study in Sweden, 5,722 men aged <or= 50 gave two blood samples about 6 years apart. We measured free (fPSA) and total PSA (tPSA) in archived plasma samples from 4,907 participants. Prostate cancer was subsequently diagnosed in 443 (9%) men. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate tPSA and tPSAv as predictors of prostate cancer. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the concordance index. RESULTS: The median time from second blood draw to cancer diagnosis was 16 years; median follow-up for men without prostate cancer was 21 years. In univariate models, tPSA level at second assessment and tPSAv between first and second assessments were associated with prostate cancer (both P < .001). tPSAv was highly correlated with tPSA level (r = 0.93). Twenty-year probabilities of cancer for men at 50th, 90th, and 95th percentile of tPSA and tPSAv were 10.6%, 17.1%, and 21.2% for tPSA, and 9.1%, 11.8%, and 14.1% for tPSAv, respectively. The concordance index for tPSA level was 0.771. Adding tPSAv, fPSA, %fPSA or velocities of fPSA and %fPSA did not importantly increase accuracy of tPSA to predict prostate cancer. Results were unchanged if the analysis was restricted to patients with advanced cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Although PSA velocity is significantly increased in men with prostate cancer up to two decades before diagnosis, it does not aid long-term prediction of prostate cancer.
PURPOSE: We tested whether total prostate-specific antigen velocity (tPSAv) improves accuracy of a model using PSA level to predict long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis. METHODS: During 1974 to 1986 in a preventive medicine study in Sweden, 5,722 men aged <or= 50 gave two blood samples about 6 years apart. We measured free (fPSA) and total PSA (tPSA) in archived plasma samples from 4,907 participants. Prostate cancer was subsequently diagnosed in 443 (9%) men. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate tPSA and tPSAv as predictors of prostate cancer. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the concordance index. RESULTS: The median time from second blood draw to cancer diagnosis was 16 years; median follow-up for men without prostate cancer was 21 years. In univariate models, tPSA level at second assessment and tPSAv between first and second assessments were associated with prostate cancer (both P < .001). tPSAv was highly correlated with tPSA level (r = 0.93). Twenty-year probabilities of cancer for men at 50th, 90th, and 95th percentile of tPSA and tPSAv were 10.6%, 17.1%, and 21.2% for tPSA, and 9.1%, 11.8%, and 14.1% for tPSAv, respectively. The concordance index for tPSA level was 0.771. Adding tPSAv, fPSA, %fPSA or velocities of fPSA and %fPSA did not importantly increase accuracy of tPSA to predict prostate cancer. Results were unchanged if the analysis was restricted to patients with advanced cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Although PSA velocity is significantly increased in men with prostate cancer up to two decades before diagnosis, it does not aid long-term prediction of prostate cancer.
Authors: Andrew J Vickers; Tineke Wolters; Caroline J Savage; Angel M Cronin; M Frank O'Brien; Monique J Roobol; Gunnar Aus; Peter T Scardino; Jonas Hugosson; Fritz H Schröder; Hans Lilja Journal: J Urol Date: 2010-09 Impact factor: 7.450
Authors: Alyssa B Chinen; Chenxia M Guan; Jennifer R Ferrer; Stacey N Barnaby; Timothy J Merkel; Chad A Mirkin Journal: Chem Rev Date: 2015-08-27 Impact factor: 60.622
Authors: Anna E Kettermann; Luigi Ferrucci; Bruce J Trock; E Jeffrey Metter; Stacy Loeb; H Ballentine Carter Journal: BJU Int Date: 2010-11 Impact factor: 5.588
Authors: Stacy Loeb; Anna Kettermann; Luigi Ferrucci; Patricia Landis; E Jeffrey Metter; Ballentine H Carter Journal: Eur Urol Date: 2008-08-03 Impact factor: 20.096